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Causal因果

Two labs. The first is 300 workers, a retraining subsidy, and pay a year later. The second is 80 students, an optional statistics workshop, and a later grade. The first asks whether the rising line is the subsidy or the family’s savings. The second asks which students remain once each joiner is paired with someone of similar prior math.两个实验。第一个是 300 名工人、再培训补贴，和一年后的月薪。第二个是 80 名学生、选修的统计工作坊，和后来的成绩。第一个问上升的线是补贴，还是家里的积蓄。第二个问每个参加者配上先前数学相近的人之后，比较里还剩下谁。

Savings can push both subsidy use and later pay, so the line rises even when the subsidy adds nothing. Pairing is a different repair: keep a joiner only when a non-joiner has a close prior-math score, instead of putting savings or prior math into the line.积蓄可以同时推动领补贴和后来的月薪，所以补贴本身没加钱时线仍会上升。配对是另一种修法：只在未参加者也有相近的先前数学时才留下参加者，而不是把积蓄或先前数学放进那条线。

A pitfall.一个陷阱。 Putting savings into the line, or tightening the allowed gap in prior math, does not by itself give the minister or the dean the program’s own effect. Look at who remains in the comparison.把积蓄放进线里，或收紧先前数学允许的差距，并不自动给部长或院长项目本身的作用。要看比较里还剩下谁。

Labs实验

• Lab实验 Confounding混杂 Is the pay gap the subsidy, or the family’s savings?工资差距是补贴，还是家里的积蓄？
• Lab实验 Matching匹配 Which students remain once prior math is similar?先前数学相近之后，还剩下哪些学生？

Summarize, then compare先概括，再比较 arrives here after a text summary: first an adjustment, then a match on one score.从一段文本概括走到这里：先做调整，再在一个分数上匹配。